{"id":482,"date":"2019-08-07T12:00:34","date_gmt":"2019-08-07T19:00:34","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/synq.tech\/a\/?p=482"},"modified":"2019-08-11T13:01:41","modified_gmt":"2019-08-11T20:01:41","slug":"why-alt-season-aint-happening","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/synq.tech\/a\/2019\/08\/07\/why-alt-season-aint-happening\/","title":{"rendered":"Why Alt Season Ain\u2019t Happening"},"content":{"rendered":"

There has been a considerable amount of chatter in the cryptosphere in regards to the return of \u201cAlt Season\u201d. Undeniably, there has been a noticeable increase of consumer interest and sentiment for cryptocurrencies. However, we are of the opinion that this Alt Season isn\u2019t going to happen the way everyone thinks it is.<\/span><\/p>\n

There are two main reasons for our negative outlook on Alt Season:<\/span><\/p>\n

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  1. Technological Development and Adoption<\/span><\/li>\n
  2. Macro Economic Influences<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

    In this report, we will explain what Alt Season is, why people think Alt Season happens, and why it likely will not happen the way people expect in 2019 and beyond.<\/span><\/p>\n

    What is Alt Season?<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

    It is generally agreed upon that \u201cAlt Season\u201d is defined as the period in which the majority of alt coins rise in BTC and USD value quickly, and outperform BTC in terms of price action. We have seen this phenomenon many times throughout the history of cryptocurrency trading, but very few understand the driving force behind it.<\/span><\/p>\n

    There has been one main Alt Season before happening in 2017. To put it simply, BTC\u2019s price was rising rather rapidly, but its market dominance began to falter in relation to other alts. Meaning, more volume was flowing into alt coins instead of Bitcoin. Bitcoin market dominance went from above 90% to around 30% in a matter of less than 12 months. This allowed alt coins to increase in BTC and USD value. This is not the main factor, but it was one of the largest contributing factors that most industry veterans look to, today. The picture below outlines the time period in which this happened.<\/span><\/p>\n

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    It is important to note that during this time there was an increased interest in alt coins because of the 2017 ICO boom, as well as the fact that margin trading had not been released yet. The large amount of money flowing freely in the market to buy alt coins, coupled with the inability to bet on the future of Bitcoin contributed to a heightened interest in alt coins to increase gains outside of BTC.<\/span><\/p>\n

    Once futures trading was introduced, attention switched back to Bitcoin and has been growing steadily since then.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

    The picture below outlines when the ICO Boom happened, as well as when Futures Trading began.<\/p>\n

    \"\"\"\"<\/p>\n

    Why Do People Think Alt Season is going to happen<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

    People generally think that Alt Season is imminent because of one main factor: shared bullish sentiment – it\u2019s the general consensus that we are in a bull market. But does that mean because we\u2019re in a bull market, everything should be going up, right? Not exactly.<\/p>\n

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    Remember that Alt Season is when alt coins generally perform well in BTC value and USD value. Another reason people think Alt Season is coming is because a few top alts are actually performing well in terms of USD value. ETH, LTC, and BNB can be included in this list. But, one main point that is missing is the fact that alts are not gaining much in BTC value during this run up. Most alt coin traders tend to track their gains in BTC. So, the USD increases are not really in the same category here.<\/span><\/p>\n

    Most people expect Bitcoin dominance to cool off and gives alts room to \u201cmoon\u201d, as the hip kids like to say. But, as we explain further, there are many reasons for Bitcoin dominance to stay at its current levels of 60%+ or go higher.<\/span><\/p>\n

    Why Alt Season Won\u2019t Happen<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

    As we explained above, there are two major reasons why we think Alt Season won\u2019t happen:<\/span><\/p>\n

      \n
    1. Technological Development and Adoption<\/span><\/li>\n
    2. Macro Economic Influences<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

      Technological Development and Adoption<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

      All alt coins created pre-2018 and beyond are mostly all projects founded by teams with a vision to use blockchain technology and cryptocurrencies to solve needs and problems in the 21st century. But, the promise of delivery has not been reached by many of these projects and their teams.<\/span><\/p>\n

      Many coins have fallen short of their goals, burned funding too quickly, or witnessed the majority of their funds that they raised reduced to a fraction of the value of when it was raised due to the crypto collapse in early 2018. These issues have plagued most teams, many of which are run by unproven founders who held millions in their wallets waiting to be spent. The market was dominated by pure speculation when alts were booming, but now things are beginning to get a bit different.<\/span><\/p>\n

      The times are now changing, and people are focusing less on promise, and more on delivery. The coins that deliver will eventually see a rise in value, as those who invest will invest in the outcomes of the team\u2019s achievements. Things like product delivery, partnerships, clients, and putting their finished products in the hands of those it was built to serve are now major factors. These factors are what investors will now look for.<\/span><\/p>\n

      What this does is put alt coins in buckets of \u201cHaves\u201d and \u201cHave-Nots\u201d. This theme is not new in the cryptosphere, but it is one that is becoming more important.<\/span><\/p>\n

      The Haves will be coins like the ones I described above. LTC, ETH, BNB, and EOS would be examples of Haves. These coins have seen product delivery, investment, adoption, and verified use cases. \u00a0The Have-Nots will be coins that have done the opposite. Alt coins like XLM, ETC, DGB, and BSV are examples of Have-Nots. These coins have not seen significant development, adoption, or wise spending of capital. Don\u2019t even get us started on Craig Wright.<\/span><\/p>\n

      2019 and 2020 will be an interesting period of time for the theme of \u201ctechnological development and adoption\u201d. We will see the market begin to look beyond speculation and promise, and begin to look to actual delivery. Core themes include:<\/span><\/p>\n